Stealing First

How Valuable is Blocking Pitches?

Posted by Dan Turkenkopf - 16/03/08 at 08:03:02 am

Now that we’ve looked at a raw ranking of how catchers performed blocking pitches in 2007 (subject to concerns about pitching staff, scoring and sample size), let’s try and turn that into runs.

Using Tango’s run expectancy chart (from 99-02, so it’s likely a little off based on the lower run environment now), a catcher miss (wild pitch or passed ball) was worth about .27 runs in 2007. Using that run value, and calculating blocks above/below average for each catcher, we can determine how many runs were saved by each catcher. The average block percentage across the entire league was 86%.

Now to put players on the same scale - which might be a little unrealistic based on the possible outside influences mentioned above. There were .27 opportunities per inning in 2007. Many people use runs per 150 games as a baseline for comparison, but since we’re talking catchers here, I think runs per 120 games probably better represents a full season. So that means a full season of opportunities should be 292 opportunities. This might be a little high since there were only 12 teams that had catchers with more than 120 games last season, so I’m willing to tweak if people think it’s necessary.

We’ll sort this table according to runs saved per 120 games, limiting still to those with over 100 opportunities.

Catcher	Innings	Misses	Opportunities	Block %	Blocks AA	Runs	Runs/120
Mike Redmond	482.67	7	135	0.95	11.9	3.21	7.1
Jason Varitek	1064	19	282	0.93	20.48	5.53	5.52
Brad Ausmus	906.67	17	256	0.93	18.84	5.09	5.52
Gary Bennett	370.33	10	139	0.93	9.46	2.55	5.52
Gregg Zaun	838.33	22	260	0.92	14.4	3.89	4.73
Yadier Molina	861.33	27	315	0.91	17.1	4.62	3.94
Jason Phillips	363.67	10	110	0.91	5.4	1.46	3.94
Chris Iannetta	496.67	12	116	0.9	4.24	1.14	3.15
Gerald Laird	987.33	38	351	0.89	11.14	3.01	2.37
Brian Schneider	1051.33	40	362	0.89	10.68	2.88	2.37
Ramon Hernandez	855	32	294	0.89	9.16	2.47	2.37
Yorvit Torrealba	935.33	22	200	0.89	6	1.62	2.37
Mike Napoli	598.67	23	205	0.89	5.7	1.54	2.37
Damian Miller	446.33	19	172	0.89	5.08	1.37	2.37
Carlos Ruiz	912.67	25	212	0.88	4.68	1.26	1.58
Josh Bard	927.33	24	202	0.88	4.28	1.16	1.58
Kurt Suzuki	539	25	202	0.88	3.28	0.89	1.58
Russell Martin	1254	40	318	0.87	4.52	1.22	0.79
Jason Kendall	1146	48	372	0.87	4.08	1.1	0.79
Dioner Navarro	956.33	34	270	0.87	3.8	1.03	0.79
Ronny Paulino	277.67	35	275	0.87	3.5	0.95	0.79
Jeff Mathis	467	27	214	0.87	2.96	0.8	0.79
John Buck	924.33	32	244	0.87	2.16	0.58	0.79
Johnny Estrada	961	37	267	0.86	0.38	0.1	0
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	372.67	16	117	0.86	0.38	0.1	0
Brian McCann	1139	34	243	0.86	0.02	0.01	0
Matt Treanor	440.67	17	120	0.86	-0.2	-0.05	0
Paul Bako	421	23	162	0.86	-0.32	-0.09	0
Victor Martinez	1042.67	29	204	0.86	-0.44	-0.12	0
Chris Snyder	891.33	34	237	0.86	-0.82	-0.22	0
Jesus Flores	395.33	15	103	0.85	-0.58	-0.16	-0.79
Michael Barrett	768	25	170	0.85	-1.2	-0.32	-0.79
Mike Rabelo	394.67	20	130	0.85	-1.8	-0.49	-0.79
Paul LoDuca	974	24	155	0.85	-2.3	-0.62	-0.79
Jose Molina	492.33	19	117	0.84	-2.62	-0.71	-1.58
Kenji Johjima	1106.67	40	237	0.83	-6.82	-1.84	-2.37
Benji Molina	1104	50	295	0.83	-8.7	-2.35	-2.37
Miguel Montero	510.67	22	122	0.82	-4.92	-1.33	-3.15
Jason LaRue	474.33	24	134	0.82	-5.24	-1.41	-3.15
Javier Valentin	471.67	22	108	0.8	-6.88	-1.86	-4.73
Miguel Olivo	990.33	65	321	0.8	-20.06	-5.42	-4.73
Joe Mauer	777.67	30	142	0.79	-10.12	-2.73	-5.52
Jorge Posada	1111.33	61	293	0.79	-19.98	-5.39	-5.52
A.J. Pierzynski	1058	44	192	0.77	-17.12	-4.62	-7.1
Dave Ross	837.33	35	148	0.76	-14.28	-3.86	-7.88
Ivan Rodriguez	1052.67	58	214	0.73	-28.04	-7.57	-10.25

Mike Redmond retakes the top spot from Jason Varitek once we scale to the same number of opportunities, while Pudge looks worse again because of his low number of opportunities. However, he played almost as many innings as Varitek, but had almost 70 fewer opportunities. I don’t know if that’s an effect of scoring, pitching staff or simple variation, but it makes me wonder if, as rlc from BBTF suggested (comment 6), Pudge isn’t calling as many low breaking pitches as other catches would.

Anyway it looks like the range in value from blocking pitches is somewhere in the order of 12 to 17 runs (at least in 2007), which actually is higher than I would have imagined going in.

A tale of two catchers

Posted by Dan Turkenkopf - 15/03/08 at 08:03:00 am

At least a couple of people have asked for some more detail about Doug Mirabelli, Tim Wakefield and blocking pitches. To no one’s surprise I’m sure, Mirabelli looks a lot better when you isolate out Wakefield. Basically he’s a completely different catcher.

Take all this with a grain of salt because the sample sizes are so small, but here’s how Mirabelli breaks down by pitcher:

Wakefield: 27 opportunities, 16 misses, 41% block percentage
Romero: 10 opportunities, 0 misses, 100% block percentage
Snyder: 6 opportunities, 2 misses, 66% block percentage
Matsuzaka: 4 opportunities, 0 misses, 100% block percentage
Pineiro: 4 opportunities, 2 misses, 50% block percentage
Lopez: 3 opportunities, 1 miss, 66% block percentage
Hansack: 2 opportunities, 0 misses, 100% block percentage
Papelbon: 2 opportunities, 0 misses, 100% block percentage
Okajima: 2 opportunities, 0 misses, 100% block percentage
Timlin: 1 opportunity, 0 misses, 100% block percentage
Delcarmen:1 opportunity, 0 misses, 100% block percentage
Tavarez: 1 opportunity, 0 misses, 100% block percentage
Donnelly: 1 opportunity, 1 miss, 0% block percentage

Total non-Wakefield pitchers: 37 opportunities, 6 misses, 84% block percentage

Catcher Block Percentage - Followup

Posted by Dan Turkenkopf - 15/03/08 at 07:03:16 am

Over on The Book Blog, Mike Fast raised the fact that I had left out the category of “Swinging Strike (Blocked)” when calculating the block opportunities.

Obviously including those pitches will change things somewhat, so without further adieu, here are the new numbers:

Catcher	Innings	Misses	Opportunities	Block %
Mike Redmond	482.67	7	135	0.95
Brad Ausmus	906.67	17	256	0.93
Gary Bennett	370.33	10	139	0.93
Jason Varitek	1064	19	282	0.93
Gregg Zaun	838.33	22	260	0.92
Yadier Molina	861.33	27	315	0.91
Jason Phillips	363.67	10	110	0.91
Chris Iannetta	496.67	12	116	0.9
Ramon Hernandez	855	32	294	0.89
Gerald Laird	987.33	38	351	0.89
Damian Miller	446.33	19	172	0.89
Mike Napoli	598.67	23	205	0.89
Brian Schneider	1051.33	40	362	0.89
Yorvit Torrealba	935.33	22	200	0.89
Josh Bard	927.33	24	202	0.88
Carlos Ruiz	912.67	25	212	0.88
Kurt Suzuki	539	25	202	0.88
John Buck	924.33	32	244	0.87
Jason Kendall	1146	48	372	0.87
Russell Martin	1254	40	318	0.87
Jeff Mathis	467	27	214	0.87
Dioner Navarro	956.33	34	270	0.87
Ronny Paulino	277.67	35	275	0.87
Paul Bako	421	23	162	0.86
Johnny Estrada	961	37	267	0.86
Victor Martinez	1042.67	29	204	0.86
Brian McCann	1139	34	243	0.86
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	372.67	16	117	0.86
Chris Snyder	891.33	34	237	0.86
Matt Treanor	440.67	17	120	0.86
Michael Barrett	768	25	170	0.85
Jesus Flores	395.33	15	103	0.85
Paul LoDuca	974	24	155	0.85
Mike Rabelo	394.67	20	130	0.85
Jose Molina	492.33	19	117	0.84
Kenji Johjima	1106.67	40	237	0.83
Benji Molina	1104	50	295	0.83
Jason LaRue	474.33	24	134	0.82
Miguel Montero	510.67	22	122	0.82
Miguel Olivo	990.33	65	321	0.8
Javier Valentin	471.67	22	108	0.8
Joe Mauer	777.67	30	142	0.79
Jorge Posada	1111.33	61	293	0.79
A.J. Pierzynski	1058	44	192	0.77
Dave Ross	837.33	35	148	0.76
Ivan Rodriguez	1052.67	58	214	0.73

It doesn’t appear to alter things too badly. Just shifts some positions around slightly and makes Pudge look a little better (but still worst in the league).

Other concerns that have been raised are the effects of the pitching staffs and the PITCHf/x scorekeepers. Unfortunately, I don’t really have a way to control for that at this point, so just keep those considerations in mind when using this information.

Catcher Block Percentage

Posted by Dan Turkenkopf - 14/03/08 at 05:03:45 pm

One of the things I’m interested in with the PITCHf/x data is seeing if we can better quantify a catcher’s impact on the game. The easiest thing to look at is how the individual catchers deal with balls in the dirt.

I looked at all the pitches classified by the Gameday scorers as “Ball In Dirt” with a least one runner on base - a total of 9907 for the 2007 season, spread across 96 different catchers. I considered these pitches to be the catcher’s opportunities to block a ball in the dirt. Brian Schneider led the way with 332 opportunities, with Jason Kendall and Gerald Laird the other catchers over 300 opportunities.

I then counted up all wild pitches and passed balls that occurred with the catcher behind the plate - let’s call them misses. Miguel Olivo had the most with 65, and Mike Redmond had the fewest with at least 100 opportunities at 7. Then I simply divided the blocks (opportunities - misses) by the opportunities to get a block percentage.

UPDATE: Mike Fast pointed out that I had missed the category of “Swinging Strike (Blocked)” when determining opportunities. I’ve rerun the numbers here.

UPDATE #2: I’ve added blocks above average and runs saved here. 

Here’s the list for all catchers with over 100 opportunities in 2007:

Catcher	Misses	Opportunities	Block %
Mike Redmond	7	111	0.94
Jason Varitek	19	236	0.92
Brad Ausmus	17	210	0.92
Gary Bennett	10	121	0.92
Yadier Molina	27	259	0.9
Gregg Zaun	22	220	0.9
Brian Schneider	40	332	0.88
Gerald Laird	38	304	0.88
Chris Iannetta	12	100	0.88
Ramon Hernandez	32	255	0.87
Yorvit Torrealba	22	171	0.87
Russell Martin	40	280	0.86
Carlos Ruiz	25	184	0.86
Mike Napoli	23	166	0.86
Damian Miller	19	140	0.86
Jason Kendall	48	317	0.85
Ronny Paulino	35	233	0.85
Dioner Navarro	34	228	0.85
John Buck	32	217	0.85
Jeff Mathis	27	180	0.85
Kurt Suzuki	25	167	0.85
Josh Bard	24	161	0.85
Jarod Saltalamacchia	16	107	0.85
Brian McCann	34	219	0.84
Paul LoDuca	24	146	0.84
Johnny Estrada	37	221	0.83
Victor Martinez	29	173	0.83
Michael Barrett	25	148	0.83
Paul Bako	23	135	0.83
Matt Treanor	17	101	0.83
Chris Snyder	34	193	0.82
Mike Rabelo	20	113	0.82
Benji Molina	50	257	0.81
Kenji Johjima	40	215	0.81
Jason LaRue	24	129	0.81
Miguel Montero	22	113	0.81
Miguel Olivo	65	277	0.77
Jorge Posada	61	268	0.77
Joe Mauer	30	121	0.75
A.J. Pierzynski	44	160	0.73
Dave Ross	35	126	0.72
Ivan Rodriguez	58	184	0.68

Perhaps the most surprising placement on this ranking is Ivan Rodriguez in last. However, anecdotally he wasn’t very good defensively last year, and he’s always been better known for his arm than for his blocking ability. Joe Mauer is way down on the list, but it’s probably pretty tough for a tall catcher to get down to block the balls. Varitek ranks highly by this measure, which means he’s pretty good at blocking pitches that aren’t knuckleballs. Mirabelli, on the other hand, only blocked 64% of his opportunities - for which he can blame Mr. Wakefield.

The Mike Hampton Rule - American League

Posted by Dan Turkenkopf - 12/03/08 at 05:03:08 pm

After taking each NL division a day a time, I’m going to try to wrap up my look at the Mike Hampton Rule with one final post. I’m also going to scale back my breathtaking commentary and pretty much just list the representative and other candidates.

For reference and methodology, here are parts one, two and three.

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

Hampton Ruler: Jay Gibbons. 2 more years at roughly $12 million total. Too much money for a backup DH.

Other Candidates: Aubrey Huff. $16 million through 2009, but at least he’s the starter. Melvin Mora. At least $17 million (plus an option buyout) over the next two seasons to hope a 36 year-old third baseman reverses his decline.

Boston Red Sox

Hampton Ruler: Julio Lugo. Definitely need to hope it was the parasites in 2007, since he’s signed for 3 more years at $27 million.

Other Candidate: JD Drew. He’s rebounded from an off-season before (2002), but Sox need to hope last year was another aberration. He’s signed through 2011 with $56 million remaining (although there are some creative ways the Sox can end the contract sooner based on injuries).

New York Yankees

Hampton Ruler: Johnny Damon. $13 million a year through 2009 is too much for a relatively weak hitting corner OF.

Other Candidates: So many to choose from. Jason Giambi. His contract finally ends after this season, but he’s being paid $21 million to split time as a poor fielding 1B, a DH, and a pinch hitter. Hideki Matsui. Same contract as Damon. A better hitter, but not as good in the field. Looking to spend a lot of time at DH or on the bench. Jorge Posada. Hoping he manages to keep drinking from the Fountain of Youth as his new 4 year / $52 million dollar deal could go south in a hurry. Alex Rodriguez. Too early to worry now, but those years in his late 30’s could be ugly. Carl Pavano. Contract ends this year, but I’d just want to get rid of the reminder of how bad that contract has been - so far $27 million over 3 years for 113 total innings pitched at a below average ERA.

Tampa Bay Rays

Hampton Ruler: This is a tough one. I don’t know. Cliff Floyd? A one year deal at $3 million doesn’t seem like anything to get too worked up over.

Other Candidate: Carlos Pena. Amazing season in 2007. Always had the potential, but the 3 year / $24 million deal could be pretty bad if he can’t repeat.

Toronto Blue Jays

Hampton Ruler: Vernon Wells. Wells has had two great seasons (2003 and 2006), a bunch of good seasons, and then there was last year. His contract is actually set up really, really nicely for Toronto (they’re only paying him $500 thousand this season), but he’s still entitled to $126 million over the next 7 years. I’m not sure I’d want to be risking that much money on an aging CF who is good but not great.

Other Candidates: BJ Ryan. It all depends on how he comes back from Tommy John surgery. Great before he went under the knife, but will he be worth the 3 years and $30 million remaining on his deal? Scott Rolen. Again, a lot depends on his health, and how happy he is to be away from Tony LaRussa

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

Hampton Ruler: Paul Konerko. Signed as a World Series hero after 2005 for $12 million a season, he’s under the Sox control until 2010. He’s now on the wrong side of 30, a poor fielding 1B, and he lost 90 points of OPS last season. He might rebound this s

Cleveland Indians

Hampton Ruler: Jake Westbrook. $11 million a year for 3 years is a little steep for a third starter. That’s not entirely fair, since he’d be the two on a number of teams, but the Indians didn’t give me a whole lot to go on.

Other Candidate: As much as it pains me to say it, Travis Hafner. Hafner has always had trouble staying healthy while hitting the snot out of the ball. Last year, he managed to stay in the lineup all season but slumped tremendously offensively. He’s also on the wrong side of 30 and just signed a new 4 year / $57 million deal. If he can return to being arguably the best pure hitter in the AL, then it’s money well spent. But if he repeats last year, the contract could quickly become an albatross.

Detroit Tigers

Hampton Ruler: Carlos Guillen. With the acquisition of Edgar Renteria, Guillen moves from being a plus offensive shortstop (although nearly Jeteriffic defensively) to being an average to slightly below average first baseman (although he should be much better defensively). For the $48 million the Tigers are paying him over the next four years, they could probably do better.

Other Candidate: Dontrelle Willis. He’s owed $29 million over the next three years under the hopes the magic isn’t gone and two straight years of precipitous decline reverse themselves.

Kansas CityRoyals

Hampton Ruler: Jose Guillen. I know the Royals just signed him, but they’re obviously expecting a whole lot more than I am. He’s an average or slightly above average corner OF with occasional attitude problems who will be pulling in $12 million a year for the next three years. Some of that is probably a KC premium, but he’ll still be hard pressed to carry his weight. Of course I had the same thoughts about Gil Meche last year and so far that’s turned out okay (so far…).

Minnesota Twins

Hampton Ruler: Justin Morneau. Morneau is a pretty good young first baseman. He obviously won the MVP in 2006 and should have legitimately been in the conversation (although I would have put Jeter and Sizemore above him, and maybe Ortiz). But he hasn’t consistently demonstrated that he’s worth the $80 million he’ll be getting over the next 6 years. I’m pretty sure there were external marketing factors that increase Morneau’s value, but if I were Bill Smith, I would have upped my offer to Johan Santana and passed on Morneau.

AL West

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Hampton Ruler: Gary Matthews Jr. Little Sarge rode one good year (and one amazing catch) to a 5 year / $50 million contract that runs through 2011. Unfortunately for the Angels, he did so well last year (93 OPS+ and arguably the worst CF in the league defensively) that they decided to sign Torii Hunter. $10 million a year is a whole lot to pay your 4th OF.

Other Candidate: Torii Hunter. While he’s better than Matthews, he’s also a lot more expensive. Coming off a career year offensively, Hunter signed a 5 year / $90 million deal that will take him through his mid-30s. A lot of Hunter’s value is in his defense, which has appeared to slip slightly the last few seasons, and will likely continue to as he ages and slows. If he has to move to a corner before the contract is up, it looks a lot worse for the Angels.

Oakland Athletics

Hampton Ruler: Eric Chavez. The last of the big name holdouts from the Moneyball teams of the early part of the decade, Chavez’s game has been ravaged by injuries. He’s got $34 million left over the next 3 seasons, which will likely only be worth the money if he stays healthy AND rebounds some offensively. An interesting thing to keep watch on is that Chavez becomes a 10/5 player towards the end of the season. I wonder if Beane will try to move him if he comes out well to start the season.

Seattle Mariners

Hampton Ruler: Richie Sexson. Sexson’s only got one year remaining on his contract at $14 million, but he was bad enough last year (84 OPS+) that I’m sure the Mariners’ fans would love to be rid of him.

Other Candidate: Ichiro Suzuki. You might not think so, but when his hitless streak (0-21 as of last night) continues all season, you’ll change your tune.

Texas Rangers

Hampton Ruler: Vincente Padilla. A lot of people were wondering why Padilla got a 3 year / $33.75 million dollar deal after 2006 (102 ERA+). After 2007, Jon Daniels is probably among those people wondering why.

Other Candidate: Kevin Milwood. Milwood has never consistently been the great pitcher people were expecting after his 167 ERA+ age 24 season in 1999. He’s had a couple of other good to great seasons, but has mixed in his fair share of stinkers. Last year was his worst of all, and Texas has to worry that might continue since they owe him $31.5 million more over the next three seasons (although they can void the deal after 2009 if Milwood doesn’t pitch enough innings).

Search