Switching a Ball to a Strike

One of the cool things (ok, I’m a baseball nerd) about analyzing data is how often you discover little interesting facts that you didn’t know before.

While researching my current work on whether catchers have an effect on whether a pitch is called a strike or a ball (look for it tomorrow or Friday at Beyond the Box Score </shameless plug>), I realized I didn’t know what replacing a ball for a strike was really worth. A Google search turned up some information as to the run value of a given count, but not the information I was looking for. So I took a little detour from my planned study and decided to calculate the value myself.

Using data found in this thread at the Book Blog and the 2006 Major League splits from Baseball-Reference, I determined the value of a ball and a strike for every count (from the point of view of the pitcher). The difference between those numbers is the value of switching a ball to a strike at each count. Then I took average of the values at each count weighted by the number of plate appearances at that count to get the final number of .161 runs.

In the interest of full disclosure, and for those who might be interested in the breakdowns, here’s the data.

B S WOBA LW RV Ball RV Strike RV B->S PA Weighted RV
0 0 0.332 0 -0.0339 0.0426 0.0765 188071 0.0217
0 1 0.283 -0.0426 -0.0269 0.0617 0.0886 87779 0.0117
0 2 0.212 -0.1043 -0.02174 0.2007 0.2224 33467 0.0112
1 0 0.371 0.0339 -0.0626 0.0496 0.1122 77323 0.0131
1 1 0.314 -0.0157 -0.0504 0.0670 0.1174 72385 0.0128
1 2 0.237 -0.0826 -0.0461 0.2224 0.2685 48727 0.0197
2 0 0.443 0.0965 -0.1104 0.0617 0.1722 27566 0.0072
2 1 0.372 0.03478 -0.1026 0.0713 0.1739 38594 0.0101
2 2 0.29 -0.0365 -0.0983 0.2685 0.3667 39862 0.0220
3 0 0.57 0.2070 -0.1170 0.0696 0.1866 9512 0.0027
3 1 0.49 0.1374 -0.1866 0.0757 0.2623 16577 0.0066
3 2 0.403 0.0617 -0.2623 0.3667 0.629 23156 0.0220

1 Comment »

RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

  1. [...] .161 runs saved by turning a ball into a strike (see here), Molina would need to turn a ball into a strike about once every 36 or 37 pitches to save 50 runs [...]

    Pingback by Could Jose Molina Have Actually Saved 50 Runs Through Framing Pitches? « The Fundamentals — November 13, 2012 #

Leave a comment

XHTML: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Powered by WordPress with GimpStyle Theme design by Horacio Bella.
Entries and comments feeds. Valid XHTML and CSS.