Revisiting the Run Value of Switching a Ball to a Strike

Over at Beyond the Box Score, a commenter named Iblemetrician suggested that I reconsider how I calculated the value of switching a ball to a strike.

When I originally calculated the run value of a ball to a strike, I looked at all plate appearances for a given count. That came out to a run value of .161 runs Iblemetrician pointed out that certain counts will have more pitches taken – and even potentially have more pitches on the edge, which might be more likely to be miscalled.

With those suggestions (and after a little bit of programming), I went back and calculated a run value weighting by both called pitches and called pitches on the edges of the strike zone.

Let’s look at the same sort of table as in the first post – this time weighted by called pitches.

B S WOBA LW RV Ball RV Strike RV B->S Called Pitches Weighted RV
0 0 0.332 0 -0.0339 0.0426 0.0765 125879 0.0275
0 1 0.283 -0.0426 -0.0269 0.0617 0.0886 43120 0.0109
0 2 0.212 -0.1043 -0.02174 0.2007 0.2224 18148 0.0115
1 0 0.371 0.0339 -0.0626 0.0496 0.1122 41330 0.0132
1 1 0.314 -0.0157 -0.0504 0.0670 0.1174 31151 0.0104
1 2 0.237 -0.0826 -0.0461 0.2224 0.2685 22982 0.0176
2 0 0.443 0.0965 -0.1104 0.0617 0.1722 14736 0.0072
2 1 0.372 0.03478 -0.1026 0.0713 0.1739 14442 0.0072
2 2 0.29 -0.0365 -0.0983 0.2685 0.3667 16318 0.0171
3 0 0.57 0.2070 -0.1170 0.0696 0.1866 7308 0.0039
3 1 0.49 0.1374 -0.1866 0.0757 0.2623 6898 0.0052
3 2 0.403 0.0617 -0.2623 0.3667 0.629 7686 0.0138

Run Value of Switching a Ball to a Strike – Weighted by Called Pitches

Now let’s look at the same breakdown, but considering called pitches on the edge. These are pitches within 2 ball radii of any side of the strike zone (and within the strike zone on the other dimension). That means we’ll count the pitch if it’s one ball width outside the strike zone on the left and middle of the strike zone in height, but we won’t count it if it’s one ball width outside the strike zone on the left and three balls widths outside the zone high.

B S WOBA LW RV Ball RV Strike RV B->S Called Pitches on the Edges Weighted RV
0 0 0.332 0 -0.0339 0.0426 0.0765 25248 0.0292
0 1 0.283 -0.0426 -0.0269 0.0617 0.0886 7857 0.0105
0 2 0.212 -0.1043 -0.02174 0.2007 0.2224 2581 0.0087
1 0 0.371 0.0339 -0.0626 0.0496 0.1122 8383 0.0142
1 1 0.314 -0.0157 -0.0504 0.0670 0.1174 5895 0.0105
1 2 0.237 -0.0826 -0.0461 0.2224 0.2685 3533 0.0143
2 0 0.443 0.0965 -0.1104 0.0617 0.1722 2961 0.0077
2 1 0.372 0.03478 -0.1026 0.0713 0.1739 2817 0.0074
2 2 0.29 -0.0365 -0.0983 0.2685 0.3667 2687 0.0149
3 0 0.57 0.2070 -0.1170 0.0696 0.1866 1499 0.0042
3 1 0.49 0.1374 -0.1866 0.0757 0.2623 1376 0.0055
3 2 0.403 0.0617 -0.2623 0.3667 0.629 1318 0.0125

Run Value of Switching a Ball to a Strike – Weighted by Called Pitches on the Edges

I’m a little worried about sample size here – at least comparatively. The results back up the expected behavior though. Players are less likely to take a close pitch with two strikes than otherwise – which lowers the relative run value of those events and therefore the overall run value of “mistakes”.


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

  1. Its good as your other content : D, regards for posting . “The rewards for those who persevere far exceed the pain that must precede the victory.” by Ted W. Engstrom.

    Comment by Jones sabo seth axcel was being established in the — May 3, 2013 #

  2. Mon codeur essaie de persuader me convaincre de passer
    à Net à partir de PHP. J’ai toujours détesté l’idée en raison des dépenses coûts.

    Mais il n’en tryiong moins. Je me sers de WordPress divers sites pendant environ un an et je suis nerveux inquiet sur le passage à une autre
    plate-forme. J’ai entendu . Est-il possible
    que je peux importation tout mon wordpress messages en elle?
    Tout type de grandement apprécié!

    Comment by Annabelle film complet — October 15, 2014 #

  3. My family all the time say that I am killing my time
    here at web, however I know I am getting know-how every day by reading such nice content.

    Comment by Qu’est-ce qu’on a fait au Bon Dieu streaming VF — October 16, 2014 #

  4. I’m gonne to convey my little brother, that he should also visit this weblog on regular basis to take updated from most up-to-date information.

    Comment by drop hack league of legends — October 16, 2014 #

  5. I savor, lead to I discovered exactly what I used to be having a look for.

    You’ve ended my four day long hunt! God Bless you man. Have a nice day.


    Comment by roblox bc hack — October 16, 2014 #

  6. Great post. I was checking continuously this weblog and
    I am inspired! Very helpful info particularly the final part :
    ) I maintain such information a lot. I was
    looking for this particular information for a long time.
    Thank you and best of luck.

    Comment by Patrice — October 19, 2014 #

  7. I’ve been exploring for a little bit for any high quality articles or
    weblog posts on this kind of space . Exploring in Yahoo I finally stumbled upon this website.

    Studying this information So i’m happy to convey that I
    have a very excellent uncanny feeling I found
    out exactly what I needed. I such a lot unquestionably will make
    certain to do not fail to remember this web site and provides it a look on a continuing basis.

    Comment by bóg jest jeden — October 19, 2014 #

  8. hi!,I like your writing so a lot! proportion we keep in touch extra approximately your post on AOL?
    I require a specialist in this house to unravel my problem.
    Maybe that’s you! Having a look ahead to peer you.

    Comment by Toms Glitters — October 20, 2014 #

  9. When someone writes an paragraph he/she maintains the plan of a
    user in his/her brain that how a user can understand it.

    So that’s why this post is amazing. Thanks!

    Comment by Heartbreaking Quotes — October 21, 2014 #

  10. Great beat ! I wish to apprentice while you amend
    your web site, how could i subscribe for a blog site?
    The account aided me a acceptable deal. I had been tiny bit acquainted of this your
    broadcast offered bright clear idea

    Comment by debt settlement usa — October 23, 2014 #

  11. I used to be recommended this website by my cousin. I am now not positive whether or not this submit is written by him as nobody
    else understand such special approximately my problem. You are amazing!

    Thank you!

    Comment by facebook markeing camgaign — October 23, 2014 #

  12. Hello just wanted to give you a quick heads up
    and let you know a few of the pictures aren’t
    loading correctly. I’m not sure why but I think its a linking issue.
    I’ve tried it in two different internet browsers and both show the same outcome.

    Comment by google page rank — October 23, 2014 #

  13. fantastic issues altogether, you just gained a logo new reader.
    What might you suggest in regards to your put up that you made some days in the past?
    Any positive?

    Comment by home window tint cost — October 24, 2014 #

  14. What you posted was very logical. But, what about this?
    suppose you typed a catchier title? I ain’t suggesting your content is not good, however what
    if you added a title to maybe get people’s attention? I mean Revisiting the Run Value of Switching a Ball to a Strike | Stealing First is kinda
    boring. You might glance at Yahoo’s front page and watch how
    they create article titles to grab people interested. You might add a related video or a pic or
    two to grab people excited about what you’ve written. Just my
    opinion, it could make your posts a little bit more interesting.

    Comment by Read This — November 5, 2014 #

  15. Remarkable! Its in fact awesome article, I have got much clear idea on the topic of from this piece of writing.

    Comment by pt3 — November 12, 2014 #

  16. An AARP survey showed that 93% of those who have a reverse mortgage are glad they got one.
    And as the interest in reverse mortgages increase, so are the cases of reverse mortgage fraud
    and scams. In addition, as the reverse mortgage draws
    upon the equity of the home, you could find yourself with
    no equity remaining if the value of your home should drop over time.

    Comment by financing — November 19, 2014 #

  17. This medicine can be used for other medical
    conditions as prescibed by the doctor or health care professional.
    Beta-blockers should be avoided in the acutely decompensating
    phase of illness. Yet, people find it hard to find the wished-for improvements,
    even though months of utilizing the products. Other
    foods that ought to be avoided during pregnancy are generally cured or uncooked meats, herbal teas, and unwashed vegatables and fruits.
    a higher level of male hormones or male hormones that are more
    active than normal.

    Comment by pregnancy women anatomy diagram — November 21, 2014 #

  18. Why people still make use of to read news papers when in this technological globe the whole thing is presented on web?

    Comment by financial and investing — November 23, 2014 #

  19. This site was… how do you say it? Relevant!! Finally I have found something that helped me.

    Comment by Free Live Jasmin Credits — November 25, 2014 #

  20. Electro samples can be made with either hardware or through a synthesizer.
    Add it to your devotion or meditation time playlist. Much
    of the top ten dubstep musicians and artists have developed key accomplishment with the The net, mainly consumers for
    example Skrillex, who might be one in every of the superior painters relied on aid made available from its fanatics internet.

    Comment by top house music — November 29, 2014 #

  21. It’s hard to come by experienced people on this subject, however, you
    seem like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks

    Comment by actress sex tape — November 30, 2014 #

  22. ‘ These words clearly reflect Swami Vivekananda’s belief that ‘Religion is the manifestation of divinity already in man’.
    Herbal aphrodisiacs are no doubt the best way for women to improve their libido, lovemaking desire and stamina.
    History of stock market says, when a person wanted to sell
    his or her shares, that person physically had to take the certificates down to the brokerage and condition for trading was that Quantity and price of the shares must match.

    Comment by progressivism in education — December 4, 2014 #

  23. For enhanced security, it is always recommended to keep your PC operating up to date.
    A PC microphone is quite similar to a normal ordinary
    microphone which is ideally used while you are indulged in stage speaking.
    And the power and flexibility of computing has adapted itself to every application’especially entertainment: Just as the television rapidly became
    “must-have” entertainment in every home, computers have become our most engaging and captivating

    Comment by — December 7, 2014 #

  24. Since after writing for plenty of time around the web, I have buddies in lots of publishing corporations
    about the web, I say this with a few doubt. Hence, I would rather
    not publicly note people who perhaps should really be excluded from those nevertheless helped to the feed at Yahoo Fund, or names
    of these ignored. I will only say to avoid automatic information Yes, we could develop
    programs that may absolutely or partly automate the writing
    of specified media reports, but from my expertise, these stories are low value, and frequently contain problems a individual
    consultant might have culled out.

    Comment by Dominique — December 8, 2014 #

  25. It’s awesome in support of me to have a web page,
    which is good designed for my knowledge. thanks admin

    Comment by www.pinoy tambayan — December 12, 2014 #

  26. The drafting directions for this skirt make this
    pattern piece out to be a sq. however the form is
    NOT a sq.. For a novice sample you’ll be expected to know an incredible lot about sewing to make this pattern work for something.
    All it took was one have a look at this and I remember why I’m not even going to trouble going to purchase a Burda pattern on sale.

    Comment by maxi skirt — December 26, 2014 #

  27. Due to these unique capabilities, B2BUA servers are widely
    used in the communications industry. It may be a local company trying to build
    awareness in the community. Others, such as creatine are widely used
    and not banned, but still need to be used with caution.

    Comment by skits — December 28, 2014 #

  28. Hello to every body, it’s my first pay a visit of this weblog; this webpage carries awesome and really fine information in support of

    Comment by wordpress website design services — January 17, 2015 #

  29. personal injury attorneys…

    Revisiting the Run Value of Switching a Ball to a Strike | Stealing First…

    Trackback by personal injury attorneys — January 17, 2015 #

  30. elder law…

    Revisiting the Run Value of Switching a Ball to a Strike | Stealing First…

    Trackback by elder law — January 18, 2015 #


    جنرال اليكتريك,غسالات جنرال اليكتريك,ثلاجات جنرال اليكتريك,مركز صيانة جنرال اليكتريك,
    توكيل جنرال اليكتريك,ارقام جنرال
    اليكتريك,شركة جنرال اليكتريك

    Comment by غسالات جنرال اليكتريك — January 19, 2015 #

  32. chanel ohrringe…

    Revisiting the Run Value of Switching a Ball to a Strike | Stealing First…

    Trackback by chanel ohrringe — January 22, 2015 #

Leave a comment

XHTML: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Powered by WordPress with GimpStyle Theme design by Horacio Bella.
Entries and comments feeds. Valid XHTML and CSS.